We offer a crisis economic briefing service for local economies, local authorities and local partnerships
We’ve performed the service most recently in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. We also provided a recession briefing service during the 2009 recession.
Project case study: Economic Monitor for Greater Cambridge: Cambridge City and South Cambridgeshire. A weekly monitoring and briefing report for local partners during the Covid-19 crisis.
Project case study: Weekly and fortnightly powerpoint economic briefing for a LEP area during the Covid-19 crisis. We provided the same service to three LEPs during 2020.
Project case study: Regular briefing for the Greater South East LEPs – comprising 6 LEPs areas. This was used during joint LEP and public leaders’ meetings and also incorporated in the local briefing analysis.
Our crisis briefing service
We find that local partners often desire to convene emergency groups or committees or resilience groups for the economy. Providing an analysis of the crisis and its potential implications is often an essential role for such committees or resilience groups. During COVID-19, we provided such briefings, starting on a weekly briefing service for Hertfordshire LEP, EM3 LEP, Thames Valley Berkshire LEP, Cambridge City Council and South Cambridgeshire District Council.
If you think about it – if you were local leader or chief executive and you convene an economic resilience group or crisis committee – you will need to inform local stakeholders about the current crisis and what it means for the local economy. You need to understand the nature of the crisis and its implications.
Some local authorities, LEPs and partnerships are resourced and set up to analyse the economy, run weekly briefings, and do focused deep dives to better understand local vulnerabilities, risks and resilience.
Explaining economic events, impacts and risks
We provide a briefing service which explains:
- Nature of the crisis, as it unfolds: what’s going on in the economy, what the current impacts of the economic crisis are
- Consequences and risks: the potential consequences and risks of recession or economic crisis
- Local vulnerabilities: which businesses, industries, households, and communities are at particular risk
- Length of recession and prognosis for recovery: the potential route out of the crisis and likely length of time until recovery begins
We provide clear and objective intelligence and insight. We explain what events, trends and the economic outlook means for your local economy, and we assess the risks and the opportunities.
In the past we’ve begun our briefing service with clients by delivering weekly briefings, because events, move fast during economic crises. The nature of a recession ‘unfolds’, and whilst we have a good idea of what’s happening, new facts and changes emerge frequently day-to-day, and week to week.
Also the government’s response can be very rapid and can change the economic outlook very quickly.
After a month or two when the nature of the crisis is better known and the implications are clearer, we settle more into a fortnightly, or a monthly monitoring service.
Typical content and structure
Global context: We tend to begin our briefings with an overview of economic conditions and recent events below globally in the US. Clients find that understanding the global situation is critical – because of the interconnected nature of the UK economy and local economies with the rest of the globe. Also some data sources on the US economy are released weekly, such as payroll and unemployment claims – and this is very useful in tracking in almost real time – the extent and depth of a crisis as well as recovery
UK economic conditions and events: We then review UK economic conditions and recent events. And these include: Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures on GVA, business activity and confidence, jobs, payrolls, employment and economic growth, HM Treasury’s monthly average of forecasts for the UK economy, Bank of England Agent reports and the Quarterly Inflation Report, OBR forecasts, and briefings from think tanks such as the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the Work Foundation and the Resolution Foundation. We incorporate other useful research insights as they emerge
Business confidence and activity. We review business confidence and business activity surveys. These include the ONS business surveys. They include British Chambers of Commerce, CBI and IoD surveys, as well as manufacturing surveys. We monitor monthly insolvency statistics for the UK. Importantly we also monitor national and regional Purchasing Managers’ Index reports (Natwest PMI) as these give leading indicators on whether the economy is contracting or growing
Labour market and unemployment. We review in some depth the latest labour market and benefit claimants statistics. Unemployment statistics are released monthly and there is a UK and regional labour market release issued monthly which we pay close attention to. These are useful sources of insights into labour demand, such as jobs, payrolls and unemployment
Sector impacts, restructuring and prospects. A significant part of the crisis briefing analysis we do is research to understand the impacts on different sectors and industries and different types of businesses in the local economy. We find that crises and recessions have a disproportionate impact on certain types of businesses. For example, during Covid-19 it was retail, leisure, and hospitality businesses that were hit hard. There are also certain types of businesses, such as those with restricted cash flow or exposure to debt loans that are vulnerable during downturns, and are at greater risk of closure and bankruptcy
Dedicated local analysis. It’s also important to include dedicated local analysis to provide an understanding of how the crisis may affect the local economy, whether this is through sectoral composition and specialisation, or the latest unemployment statistics or other local intelligence and business news.
Assessing forward downside and upside risks. Finally, we provide some assessment of the forward risk both in terms of downside risk which analyses problems associated with crisis and recession, and upside risk in terms of market change and restructuring that may favour local businesses or industries.
Where we add value and expertise
We’ve had a lot of experience in crisis and recession briefings, and have a very good idea of what local clients and stakeholders want and need. We are experienced at explaining why certain changes have occured and the causal factors and dynamics behind this. And we connect the dots in terms of local economic structures, global and national economic events, and the implications. We do not just provide tables of data information. We provide insights, analysis, and explanation.
We can also present – in person, or virtually. We are all experienced presenters and public speakers. During the 2009 recession, we produced regional monthly reports for Central Government and presented to them in person to the then government departments of BIS, HMT, and DCLG, helping to shape their policy responses. Many of the summaries went to Ministers. We also produced monthly local labour market briefings for the then-Regional Minister.
Format of outputs
The former of our outputs and briefings is entirely up to you. During the Covid-19 crisis we provided briefings as word and PDF documents, as well as regular PowerPoint presentations. And we presented in virtual meetings to groups of stakeholders and leaders. We are experienced presenters and public speakers – and are very adept at presenting and explaining economic issues, analysis and explanation to all kinds of stakeholders – both those with experience and expertise in the economy and those who are unfamiliar with economic statistics.
We tend to put the reports and PPT slides into the clients’ own-branded templates – so they look like part of the client’s family of documents.
We can now also offer provide podcasts or to record presentations as movies with commentary for you to publish on your website. We are flexible about how the information analysis and insights are provided – it’s really up to you to help guide us as to what would be most beneficial for your stakeholders.
Get in touch
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Use the the contact form below to get in touch to discuss your needs.
Get in touch.
We are based in Cambridge, UK, and work and meet clients all over the UK. Of course, we have access to MS Teams and Zoom as well. Get in touch if you want to discuss an idea, project, or just want an informal discussion about your work.
Please get in touch using the form below or call us on 07799 880137
(international +44 7799 880137)
mylocaleconomy is the trading name of Athey Consulting Limited, a Limited Company registered in the UK (Company no. 07771760) and based in Cambridge, UK. (c) Athey Consulting Limited.