The UK general election is one day away. This article provides an overview of the main parties’ manifesto proposals, and some of the potential issues and dilemmas that will face each party should it form all or part of a government after May 07.
I’ve taken the Centre for Cities briefing, and ruminated on a few of the main issues facing each party, and the country, after the General Election Tomorrow.
In sum – the lessons for all parties, and whoever manages to form a government in the next few weeks are:
- Some clear objectives and aims for devolution of powers and resources. Personally I think devolution is in principle a good thing and I want it to be successful, but like anything – to be delivered successfully you need focus, and a set of coherent aims which are relevant and credible. Why not phase devolution accordingly – e.g. skills by 2017; housing by 2020; transport by 2023 etc? might make it more focused and manageable.
- Clearly – centralised policy solutions for skills, housing and (to some extent) transport have all failed. There is a long legacy of a failure to deliver by all governments on these agendas by means of central policies and programmes. I think that trying a devolved approach might actually mean some headway is made on delivering more houses, the skills employers and individuals need, and integrated transport solutions
- Institutional restructuring/ scorched earth policies can mean nothing gets delivered for 2-3 years. The new government will have to work out how to achieve its aims through using and adapting existing structures.
- Clearly articulate what is a national policy responsibility and what is a local one. You can’t say ‘devolution’ on one hand and then ‘centralisation’ on the other – as some parties do on planning, then foists garden cities on local authorities. Clearly you have to be prepared for more autonomous local decisions – and be prepared for ones that your Cabinet might not like.
- Austerity means pressures on local budgets, which means pressure on the ‘devolution’ project. Except for the SNP and Plaid Cymru, the other parties want to stick to deficit reduction (albeit at different rates).
- We need a pragmatic and sensible devolution roadmap and constitutional settlement that can deliver for English cities, regions and localities as well as the devolved administrations of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland
- Whoever gets in there’ll be a pause for thought, a spending review and then the Pre-budget Report in Autumn – its unlikely we’ll get any quick answers or certainty of the future policy landscape until then
Conservatives
What they say
- Continue with city deal – based approach, Manchester devolution, local business rate retention pilots, devolution to London; Devolve more powers to city-regions, particularly those electing mayors
- ‘Northern Powerhouse’ – £13 billion funding, including HS3 line between Manchester and Leeds
- English MPs a veto on England-only matters and approach to English Votes for English Laws
- 3 million apprenticeships, University Technical College access from every city; NI incentives for apprentices; postgraduate loans
- Invest £6.9 billion in UK’s research infrastructure up to 2021
- Build 200,000 starter homes (discount for under-40s); extend right to buy to housing association properties; push existing garden cities
- Ensure 90% of suitable brownfield land has planning permission by 2020
- Protect the green belt
- £38 billion in railway network by 2019 (including £13bn assigned to North for HS3); freeze consumer rail prices (capped to RPI); continue towards 95% broadband coverage target
Some issues which are I think are relevant to all parties and will need addressed after the election
- A coherent vision and set of objectives. The coalition were very vague across a lot of policy initiatives – there were no founding aims or easily understood connections between the aims and the means – e.g. Local Enterprise Partnerships were an answer to a policy aim or objective of what exactly? City Deals and the like were incrementalist – and are all a bit different. If there are no firm aims or ‘logic chains’ where there is a plan of what the resources will be used for, how they will be used, and how success will be measured – its difficult to understand if policy has been successful or not. Its an untidy way of developing and delivering new policy, no?
- Living up to the ambition? The coalition government pushed forward localism and devolution to cities, and made headlines about their very big ambitions. A significant challenge relates to matching rhetoric with reality.
- A bit of an untidy policy and institutional landscape. Localism and city policies have become untidy, over-complicated and a bit messy. This will need sorted out, rationalised, simplified, streamlined.
- The devolution on demand method – is it the best? the approach over the last few years has been incrementalism, rather than a more systematic review of what and how to devolve. Its led to rather a lot of wooly approaches such as ‘review boards’ for skills. This is a good start, but it has a feeling of gesture politics and a lack of permanence. Why not launch a cross party parliamentary review into devolution tasked with identifying early wins, and then a timetable for reviewing the what and how of devolution?
- Austerity pressures. The avowed policy of paying down the deficit will necessarily restrict spending elsewhere – will there be much left to devolve? Also, austerity may have the effect of bidding down growth rates (as it did 2010-2012) which will lower the tax take of government. This has the dual effect of causing concern amongst international financial markets – thus making the treasury wary of increasing borrowing (so cities will find it harder to borrow or to get any traction on innovative financial vehicles) as well as adding pressure on the government to raise taxes.
- No new taxes? Well, apart from VAT, income tax rates and inheritance tax? How else will the government raise new taxes if it has to? (for it has committed itself to not getting into any more debt!). So what else can be taxed? we will see – but there are always peverse effects to new taxes, especially if they are indirect.
- Certainty to invest: the government can only talk for so long about big infrastructure such as HS2 and airport expansions – at some stage they need to approve decisions in order to start the long planning, development and contracting processes. And there’s some need for a national statutory instrument to do this, rather than create 10- or 20- year long appeals processes.
- We need to deliver world class infrastructure. Britain’s infrastructure is second-rate. Its no use talking up HS2 and HS2 without actually setting things in motion to pay for, and deliver it. We can’t wring our hands about South East airport expansion forever. We have to deliver if we want to maintain or improve (we need to, its sliding!) our world standing as an economy.
- Lack of progress due to being bogged down in bolt-on constitutional debates. The conservatives are not offering a coherent constitutional or legal settlement for a ‘new look’ devolved UK, instead they look at bolting on new arrangements to existing institutions which some may say, are not fit for purpose any more. If they get bogged down in this, they might just take their eye off the ball in terms of getting things done.
Labour
What they say
- A more universal approach to urban policy.
- An English Devolution Act and provide £30 billion of devolved funding to cities and county regions, as well as setting longer-term multi-year budgets for local authorities.
- They would allow city and county regions to retain 100 per cent of additional business rates growth
- Create an English Regional Cabinet Committee and local Public Accounts Committees
- Give Wales the same powers as Scotland under the Smith Commission Agreement
- Support high-tech knowledge clusters based around universities, especially outside of the South East.
- Deliver more skilled jobs; guaranteed apprenticeship for every school leaver with sufficient grades; commission a local replacement for the Work Programme
- Compulsory Jobs Guarantee to give a paid start job for young people unemployed for over a year
- New technical baccalaureate for 16-18 year olds and expand availability of technical degrees in universities
- Build 200,000 homes per year by implementing Lyons Review; new local authority powers for housing; mansion tax; Help to Buy ISAs; three year tenancies and control of rent rises
- Increase local authority power over buses; better integrate public transport and smart ticketing; review franchising process allowing public sector organisations to bid and operate; National Infrastructure Commission and new National Rail body; support HS2 (with cost controls)
Some issues which are I think interesting and will need addressed after the election
- What are the policy drivers and expectations? A bit like the Conservatives, the Labour Party has gone a bit ‘Mom and apple pie’ over devolution without spelling out the clear expectations and benefits that are wanted or are likely to arise. I think that this is important, because expectations can be all things to all people, or far too high. I remember RDAs and how they were tasked with low carbon, brownfield housing, rural development and industrial policy – on top of enterprise, innovation and regeneration (but not with skills) with less than 0.5% of public expenditure – and how unrealistic and unfocused this became.
- The austerity pressures will also apply. Just like the Conservatives, the Labour Party have set themselves up for some tight fiscal policy decisions which may affect the budgets for local government and devolved powers.
- Untangling the coalition’s subnational policies (but not taking 3 years to do it). The Coalition created a rather ‘unstructured’ approach to subnational economic development – with LEPs, City Deals, Local Growth Deals, Local Transport Bodies, Combined Authorities… there are now institutions, expectations, budgets and programmes – oh, and initiatives and people on the ground doing things. There is not much appetite to rip this up and start again. As we saw with the coalition – a scorched earth policy creates nice media sound bites, but results in a 3-year hiatus where nothing much happens. Labour’s challenge will be to ‘evolve’ the current structures and policies into something which meets their aims.
- Ambitious housing policies – Labour plan to build 200,000 homes per year; compared to the conservatives 200,000 in the whole 5-year term of government
- Some demarcation of the responsibilities of national and local governments – i.e. mechanisms for national infrastructure projects and devolution of substantial local control where its sensible.
Liberal Democrats
What they say
- System of Devolution on Demand, which would continue with the city deals and growth deals process of gradual devolution, but would shift the emphasis more towards a presumption in favour of transferring powers wherever cities can demonstrate a local appetite and capacity to deliver.
- A Government process to deliver greater devolution of financial responsibility to English Local Authorities, and any new devolved bodies in England.
- Place-specific proposals include a commitment to delivering Transport for the North to promote growth, innovation and prosperity across northern England.
- Single out the South West, London and East-West connections as areas for transport infrastructure investment.
- Give Wales more power over Network Rail funding, as well as additional powers for Scotland and Wales over the Crown Estate, borrowing for investment and benefits for older people, carers and disabled people.
- Expand availability of apprenticeships include degree-equivalent ones; extend Apprenticeship Grant for Employers
- Enable devolved nations to deliver a reformed Work Programme
- Ensure advice and training more tailored to local employment markets and better integrated
- Double innovation and research spending; more ‘Catapult’ centres; increase support from Green Investment Bank
- Build 300,000 homes per year in 10 garden cities; enable government agencies to directly commission homes where the market is not delivery to demand; mansion tax; loans for under-30s to pay deposits; new Rent to Own homes; 15 year plans with neighbouring authorities and strengthen cooperation
- 10-year rolling capital investment funds; comprehensive plan to electrify UK rail network by 2030; proceed with HS2; new powers to local authorities; oppose airport expansion at Gatwick, Heathrow, Stansted, Thames Estuary
Some issues which are I think interesting and will need addressed after the election
- There’s some welcome commitment to devolution here. But then there’s some hypocracy too in saying ‘more devolution to local government’ and then foisting 10 garden cities on them whether they like it or not.
- Devolution on demand is a bit of an empty gesture? Its not like its really on demand, but rather you ask – and then get told what you can have. Which as long as its capital funding for housing or transport, you can have it.
- Doubling R&D spending would seem sensible particularly given the parlous state of UK R&D spending compared to other countries. As I wrote here – UK R&D spend is almost half that of Germany.
- The restriction of airports in the Greater South East seems to have no sound economic basis and sends wider messages such as we no longer see ourselves as wanting to compete globally and provide world class airports.
